Dra. Montserrat Casanovas
Montserrat Casanovas, Professor of Financial Economics and Accounting at the University of Barcelona, President of the Catalan Association of Accounting and Management and Numerary Member and member of the Governing Board of the Royal European Academy of Doctors (READ), addressed, together with Laureano Gris, an expert in financial markets, the main impacts of the economic policy undertaken by the President of the United States on the main macroeconomic variables and the evolution of the leading indices in the lecture “Impacts of Donald Trump’s economic policy”, which she presented during the 10th International Academic Meeting held by the Royal Academy between 15 and 20 March in several German cities under the general title “The Rhine as a current of knowledge: cross-border dialogues”.
For the two experts, the measures implemented by the Trump Administration, with a clearly protectionist approach aimed at strengthening domestic competitiveness and protecting national industry, drastically increased trade tariffs, which had adverse repercussions on global supply chains. They also generated tensions in financial markets and a depreciation of the dollar against most world currencies. His strategy combined a marked expansionary fiscal bias, based on significant tax cuts and incentives for private investment, with a programme of sectoral deregulation, especially in energy and financial services. “These measures seek GDP growth by encouraging private investment and domestic consumption. However, they increase budgetary imbalances and raise pressure on public debt,” they considered.
Casanovas and Gris highlighted Washington’s aggressive tariff policy during Trump’s second term, which has led to a slowdown in world trade and a renewed impact on international supply chains and globalisation following the pandemic crisis. In this regard, they pointed out how the World Trade Organization estimates that, instead of the previously forecast 2.7% growth, the volume of global merchandise trade will contract by 1% in 2025, with the United States as the main drag. Domestically, US GDP showed resilience in this scenario, growing at an annualised rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, driven by domestic consumption and reduced imports, although a slowdown is expected. The annual variation stands at around 2.1%. However, inflation has remained in the 2.5%-3% range, driven by rising import prices and the dollar’s 11.5% depreciation against the euro.
The labour market has also shown a slight loss of momentum, as the unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4.4% in September 2025, a trend influenced by restrictive migration policies. The Federal Reserve, faced with inflationary shocks, maintained a restrictive stance for much of the year, cutting interest rates only from September onwards, bringing rates to 3.75–4%. As regards the equally aggressive fiscal policy, the Department of Government Efficiency helped reduce the deficit from 7.07% to 5.82%. Nevertheless, the main rating agencies downgraded the US debt rating in view of the projected sharp increase in the deficit. Markets, for their part, have responded with great volatility, as seen in recent months amid geopolitical conflicts, without showing a clear trend. Hence, according to the speakers, the coming quarters will be key to assessing whether the domestic benefits offset the external costs and the greater uncertainty generated.
Casanovas is President of the Committee of Teaching and Research Economists of the General Council of Economists, of the Forum of Economists in Financial Markets of the Association of Economists of Catalonia, and of the Social Council of the group CIVICAi, established in 2023 with the aim of defending human interests in the face of the deployment of artificial intelligence. A recognised expert in digital transformation, Casanovas had already served as Vice-President of this organisation since its foundation.
