Mr Josep Sánchez Llibre
Josep Sánchez Llibre, President of Foment del Treball Nacional, Vice-President of the Spanish Confederation of Business Organisations, former member of the Parliament of Catalonia and the Congress of Deputies, former senator and Honorary Member of the Royal European Academy of Doctors (READ), shares with the academic community the conclusions of the report “Spain of 50 Million Inhabitants”, prepared by Opina 360 for the Barcelona Society of Economic and Social Studies of Foment. The document analyses the demographic changes that will shape the Spanish economy in the coming decades. Finalised in December 2025, the study considers a scenario in which the country approaches 50 million inhabitants, with demographic growth characterised by accelerated ageing, strong dependence on immigration and territorial polarisation that threatens future economic sustainability.
The report highlights that between 2000 and 2025, Spain gained more than 8.6 million inhabitants, an increase of 20.1%, making it the fifth fastest-growing country in the European Union, behind only smaller states such as Luxembourg, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland. However, this growth is not driven by a birth boom but rather by migration flows. Since 2015, the natural population balance has been negative: more people have died than been born. In 2024, a historic low of just 317,255 births was recorded—the lowest figure in nearly two centuries—and the fertility rate stands at 1.12 children per woman, the second lowest in Europe. At the same time, life expectancy has risen to 84 years, cementing Spain as the third-longest-lived country in the EU. The result is a deeply distorted demographic pyramid: there are now more residents aged 70–74 than those aged 0–4, and those aged 80 and over have doubled their share, rising from 3.6% to 6.2% of the total population.
Immigration has acted as the true engine of this growth. Nearly one in five residents (19.1%) was born outside Spain, and three out of every four newcomers in recent years are under 40, which has partially rejuvenated the population base. Without these inflows, the country would have experienced sustained population decline. However, this growth has not been evenly distributed. The provinces of Madrid, Barcelona, Alicante, Valencia and Málaga account for 89.1% of total population growth, while thirteen provinces in the interior and northwest have steadily lost inhabitants. This has resulted in a polarised Spain: expanding metropolitan and coastal areas versus a slowly depopulating interior.
Internal migration further intensifies this imbalance. Large cities are losing residents to more affordable surrounding areas (such as Toledo, Guadalajara, Tarragona or Girona), while smaller rural municipalities experienced a temporary recovery during the pandemic due to remote working, although the underlying trend remains one of depopulation. Age structures also vary significantly by region. The report emphasises the close link between demography and economic performance: recent population growth has coincided with periods of economic expansion, and the most dynamic regions (such as Madrid and the Balearic Islands) are also those that have gained the most inhabitants. This process deepens the divide between an overcrowded Spain and an empty Spain, where depopulation threatens the social and economic viability of many rural territories.
The study concludes that immigration accounted for nearly 45% of the jobs created between 2021 and 2025 and has directly contributed to GDP per capita growth. However, it also presents challenges: many immigrants are concentrated in lower-skilled, lower-productivity jobs, while population ageing increases spending on pensions and healthcare, placing pressure on the sustainability of the welfare state. The distorted demographic pyramid, urban concentration, migration dependence and the direct relationship between demography and economic activity depict a country that is growing in absolute numbers but must urgently address generational renewal, pension sustainability and territorial cohesion if it is to maintain its business competitiveness and social model in the coming decades.
Sánchez Llibre has received numerous distinctions, including the Award of the Association of Self-Employed Workers of Catalonia, the Bernardo O’Higgins Medal awarded by the Government of Chile, honorary membership of the Official Association of Mercantile and Business Graduates of Barcelona, the Medal of Honour for Business Career from Foment del Treball, the Gold and Diamond Insignia of RCD Espanyol, the Gold Medal of the Order of Chambers of Commerce from the Council of Chambers of Commerce, the Red Cross Medal for his commitment to the humanitarian programme “Creu Roja Respon”, the Medal of Honour of Automobile Barcelona, honorary membership of the Register of Economist Auditors of the General Council of Economists, and the Gaudí Gresol Award for Notoriety and Excellence in the category of Business Leadership. He is also the author of the book “Les veritats de l’Estatut.”
