Dr José Daniel Barquero
José Daniel Barquero, Director of the consultancy Strategic Economic Relations, CEO of the Thyssen Collection Group, Professor at La Salle Open University, Honorary Member of the European Higher Council of Doctors, and Full Member of both the Royal Academy of Economic and Financial Sciences and the Royal European Academy of Doctors (READ), warns of the structural risk facing the Spanish economy in light of what he describes as a “technical tie” between public employees and the self-employed. In his article “Spain, on the Edge,” published on 9 February in La Vanguardia, the expert highlights what he considers a worrying balance between those who depend on the State and those who directly generate economic and fiscal activity.
“Spain is recording historic highs in employment and yet is approaching an economic threshold that is scarcely debated. With more than 22.4 million people employed, the decisive structural figure is not the total volume but its composition: public employment stands at around 3.6 million, while self-employment ranges between 3.3 and 3.4 million, according to the Labour Force Survey and Social Security records. The diagnosis is unequivocal: Spain has entered a scenario of technical parity between those who depend on the public budget and those who directly sustain the system’s productive and fiscal base. This is neither an ideological controversy nor a criticism of public employment, whose function is essential. It is a matter of macroeconomic balance,” the expert begins.
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For Barquero, if the weight of self-employment does not increase, the Spanish economy will lose dynamism, resilience, and adaptability. This situation is compounded by demographic ageing: Spain already has nearly 10 million pensioners, with approximately 100,000 more added each year, permanently increasing public expenditure. This rise places sustained pressure on public finances regardless of economic growth or productivity levels. Other factors further strain fiscal and budgetary balances, such as increased defence spending—potentially reaching between €28 and €33 billion annually—and the expansion of public services. Although the regularization of immigrants may increase Social Security contributions, its structural impact remains limited in comparison to population ageing.
The expert concludes that Spain stands at a turning point: if the weight of the State continues to grow without a proportional increase in the productive base, the result will be greater fiscal pressure, slower economic growth, and reduced capacity to respond to future crises. In this context, the academic calls for an urgent debate and response. “Spain has reached a turning point: the State now weighs as much as those who finance it. Unless the self-employed sector and the productive fabric are strengthened, fiscal pressure will rise and economic potential will decline. The dilemma is clear: more State without more wealth, or more wealth to sustain the State,” he concludes.
