{"id":90598,"date":"2020-05-21T22:21:59","date_gmt":"2020-05-21T22:21:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/raed.academy\/?p=90598"},"modified":"2020-05-22T11:39:04","modified_gmt":"2020-05-22T11:39:04","slug":"economia-i-coronavirus-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/raed.academy\/ca\/economia-i-coronavirus-6\/","title":{"rendered":"Economia i coronavirus (6)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 M\u00aa Gay de Li\u00e9bana<\/strong><\/em><\/a>
\nProfessor de la Facultat d’Economia i Empresa de la Universitat de Barcelona<\/em>
\nAcad\u00e8mic de n\u00famero de la Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors-Barcelona 1914 (RAED)<\/em><\/p>\n

Economia geom\u00e8trica<\/h3>\n

O el que vindria a ser el mateix: geometria econ\u00f2mica. I tot per la V, que \u00e9s la vint-i-quatrena lletra i la dinovena consonant de l’alfabet catal\u00e0, i amb la V asim\u00e8trica susceptible, quan es legitimi, de convertir-se en la vint-i-quatrena bis lletra i la divuitena bis consonant del nostre alfabet. I dic bis, amb b de Barcelona, \u200b\u200bque no vis, que seria de vis a vis, estar un davant de l’altre, cara a cara, i potser alguna cosa m\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

I de V asim\u00e8trica i recuperaci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica va l’assumpte. Si la tal recuperaci\u00f3 de la nostra economia sigui en V implicaria que tot el que cau, com la nostra economia en descens lliure i a plom, remunta amb energia: aterratge avortat, “rejected landing”, que ordena el comandant davant la impossibilitat de poder aterrar en bones condicions, mantenint els motors de l’avi\u00f3 amb tota la seva pot\u00e8ncia per, en el moment de tocar terra, rebotar, i fer el “go around”, pujant amb velocitat al m\u00e0xim cap al cel. L’economia espanyola es recuperaria de la Covid-19 en forma de V i en poc temps superar\u00edem el mal moment.<\/p>\n

Si la recuperaci\u00f3 d’Espanya \u00e9s en forma de V asim\u00e8trica, aix\u00f2 vol dir que descendim precipitada i bruscament, caient en picat. Com els motors amb prou feines tenen pot\u00e8ncia a causa de la destrucci\u00f3 del nostre teixit empresarial, amb tantes empreses desaparegudes en combat i altres ferides de gravetat, al costat de legions de treballadors desallotjats dels seus llocs de treball per la crisi econ\u00f2mica del coronavirus, la pujada cap al cel de la nostra economia, la remuntada cap amunt, \u00e9s molt costosa i amb tan poca for\u00e7a que igual ens arrosseguem per la pista i veurem com queda l’avi\u00f3. Aix\u00ed que, de la V asim\u00e8trica a la L, pura i dura, que \u00e9s la dotzena lletra i novena consonant de l’alfabet llat\u00ed b\u00e0sic, hi ha poca difer\u00e8ncia.<\/p>\n

Per qu\u00e8 la crisi s’allarga a Espanya?<\/h3>\n

Veient la presumible capacitat de recuperaci\u00f3 de la crisi econ\u00f2mica de la Covid-19, s’adverteix com alguns pa\u00efsos al 2021 aniran sortint de l’esvoranc, mentre que a Espanya li costar\u00e0 bastant m\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Per qu\u00e8 fins al 2023 Espanya no ser\u00e0 capa\u00e7 de recuperar uns nivells d’activitat econ\u00f2mica en l\u00ednia amb el 2019? La resposta est\u00e0 en el nostre model productiu i en la seva sensibilitat a les envestides de la pand\u00e8mia. L’economia alemanya, per exemple, exhibeix el seu m\u00fascul industrial, amb un sector secundari molt concentrat en la ind\u00fastria manufacturera, i una taxa de cobertura de la seva balan\u00e7a comercial (exportacions sobre importacions) del 120%. Tan aviat com es comenci a normalitzar la situaci\u00f3 i l’activitat econ\u00f2mica mostri indicis de recuperaci\u00f3, els motors de l’economia germ\u00e0nica tornaran a rugir i el seu car\u00e0cter d’economia aperturista i exportant per tot arreu s’imprimiran velocitat per remuntar.<\/p>\n

A Espanya concentrem el 75% de la nostra economia en el sector serveis, juntament amb comer\u00e7, i l’estirada de serveis dep\u00e8n en gran manera del turisme que actua com a tractor d’altres activitats. Aix\u00ed mateix, en la nostra terra tenim molta empresa molt petita, el mercat laboral no \u00e9s eficient, al capital hum\u00e0 li falta manxa formatiu, el capital productiu pateix d’un plus digital i formatiu i la construcci\u00f3 tamb\u00e9 t\u00e9 el seu pes… En ser precisament el turisme un sector fortament castigat pel coronavirus, la seva aportaci\u00f3 a la reconstrucci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica d’Espanya ser\u00e0 t\u00edmida en els propers mesos i, de la mateixa manera, la recuperaci\u00f3 de l’ocupaci\u00f3 costar\u00e0 perqu\u00e8 serveis i comer\u00e7 s’han vist tremendament colpejats.<\/p>\n

Estampes hel\u00b7lenes<\/h3>\n

Confinats i sense parar de fer vida virtual i teletreballar, que aix\u00f2 del teletreball ha arribat per quedar-se i haurem de redissenyar les nostres llars per disposar de la sala del teletreball, perqu\u00e8 si no fins al WC un s’est\u00e0 enfrontant al “cash flow” i a la videoconfer\u00e8ncia, amb l’ordinador conf\u00f3s entre el paper higi\u00e8nic i lluitant contra el restrenyiment.<\/p>\n

Tot i que amb tant confinament trobem temps per mirar postals del bressol de la nostra civilitzaci\u00f3, la de pensadors i fil\u00f2sofs, sobre la qual constru\u00efm els nostres pilars culturals: Gr\u00e8cia, aquest Mediterrani genu\u00ed que inspira als que habitem les seves ribes. Gr\u00e8cia, atordida durant temps amb el Gr\u00e8xit, es abocar al dur rescat amb el seu deute p\u00fablic movent-se entre el 109% i el 126%, nivell de deute en qu\u00e8 Espanya ser\u00e0 entre el 2020 i el 2021.<\/p>\n

Amb el rescat, la seva economia va caure. Els ajustos no van anar a l’Estat, de manera et\u00e8ria, ni als pol\u00edtics, sin\u00f3 sobre la seva poblaci\u00f3. Als anys de crisi, les fam\u00edlies gregues han perdut el 40% dels seus ingressos, els sous s’han desplomat, les pensions s’han retallat fins a un 40%, i avis amb pensions de menys de 700 euros no volen morir per poder alimentar als seus fills i n\u00e9ts. A Gr\u00e8cia no es parla de mileuristes, sin\u00f3 de cinc-centseuristes. El 36% de la poblaci\u00f3 est\u00e0 en risc de pobresa, i els seus joves sense feina, veient la manca d’oportunitats emigren. Gr\u00e8cia pateix descapitalitzaci\u00f3 intel\u00b7lectual i fugida de talent, 250.000 llicenciats, des que va comen\u00e7ar el rescat, hi han fugit. Gr\u00e8cia va rebre uns 330.000 milions d’euros de rescat. Quant necessitar\u00e0 Espanya? El seu deute p\u00fablic \u00e9s del 176,6%; el nostre, al 2021, fregar\u00e0 el 120%. Postals hel\u00b7lenes per inspirar-nos.<\/p>\n

La nostra despesa p\u00fablica<\/h3>\n

Per despesa p\u00fablica que no sigui. Aqu\u00ed del que es tracta \u00e9s de donar-li al manubri de la despesa p\u00fablica sense parar, que la vida \u00e9s fanf\u00e0rria, sobretot, si paguen altres.<\/p>\n

Que ja se sap que el d\u00e8ficit p\u00fablic no \u00e9s de ning\u00fa per\u00f2 que el deute p\u00fablic si que \u00e9s de tots, tot i que sigui causat pels excessos de nom\u00e9s alguns que, despr\u00e9s, se’n van tan tranquils i amb pensions vital\u00edcies a costa dels pagans, que som la resta.<\/p>\n

Del 2017 al 2019, la despesa p\u00fablica va passar de 478.000 milions d’euros a 522.000 milions, \u00e9s a dir, que va augmentar en 44.000 milions d’euros, tot i que, aix\u00f2 s\u00ed, els ingressos, amb els impostos i cotitzacions socials jugant fort, van cr\u00e9ixer pr\u00e0cticament el mateix. Ergo, succionem m\u00e9s als que treballen en pro de la redistribuci\u00f3 de la renda i la riquesa.<\/p>\n

Com es reparteix la despesa p\u00fablica el 2019? Doncs les comunitats aut\u00f2nomes van gastar 192.000 milions d’euros -18.000 milions m\u00e9s que el 2017-; les corporacions locals en van gastar 73.000 milions -5.000 milions m\u00e9s que dos anys enrere-, per\u00f2 aqu\u00ed res a dir, perqu\u00e8 els nostres ajuntaments salden amb super\u00e0vit de 3.800 milions els seus comptes; i, per descomptat, el festival de major despesa i en cascada \u00e9s el de la Seguretat Social, que al 2019 va gastar 183.000 milions d’euros, tamb\u00e9 18.000 milions m\u00e9s que al 2017, tot i que el nombre de pensionistes del 2017 al 2019 ha crescut en 192.000.<\/p>\n

I sense \u00e0nim de cridar al mal temps, nom\u00e9s indicar que a l’abril la r\u00e0tio d’afiliats ocupats de la Seguretat Social sobre pensionistes cau a 2,06. Dada preocupant.<\/p>\n

Reconstruir Espanya?<\/h3>\n

Quan hi ha manca de marcs de refer\u00e8ncia copiosos, assortits, il\u00b7lustratius, explorats, experimentats i diversos, la indig\u00e8ncia intel\u00b7lectual econ\u00f2mica no nom\u00e9s fa niu, sin\u00f3 que es conrea i propaga com un pernici\u00f3s virus. Constituir una Comissi\u00f3 per a la Reconstrucci\u00f3 Econ\u00f2mica i Social en seu parlament\u00e0ria, endog\u00e0mica, integrada exclusivament per pol\u00edtics professionals, \u00e9s indici inequ\u00edvoc que el prop\u00f2sit de reconstruir una Espanya on l’economia es dessagna a borbolls i l’ocupaci\u00f3 s’ensorra. Sona a deliri.<\/p>\n

La veu dels empresaris -grans, mitjans, petits i aut\u00f2noms-, la dels experts, la dels savis, la de persones dutxes i ensinistrades en el m\u00f3n real, dels que lluiten en mil i un combats, que saben enfilar amb fermesa i destresa a trav\u00e9s de mars turbulents en temps d’adversitats, queda silenciada.<\/p>\n

Aix\u00ed que en comptes de posar en marxa una reconstrucci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica i social d’Espanya basada en els pilars de la sanitat, la reindustrialitzaci\u00f3, l’impuls de R+D i de la innovaci\u00f3 tecnol\u00f2gica promovent el desenvolupament del sector primari, potenciant el paper de les universitats de l’Espanya interior i perif\u00e8rica, fomentant la creaci\u00f3 d’ocupaci\u00f3 de qualitat i jugant la carta de la formaci\u00f3, revisant i ajustant pressupostos pels que campen al seu aire despeses sup\u00e8rflues i homenatges de dubtosa estirp; en comptes d’aix\u00f2, es recorre als manits t\u00f2pics de pujades d’impostos i de generoses rendes b\u00e0siques que captivin vots, picant a l’economia productiva en benefici dels que seuen les seves natges en toves poltrones governamentals. Flagel\u00b7lar als que treballen, confiscar patrimonis de gents prudents i xuclar fins a l’\u00faltim c\u00e8ntim del fruit aconseguit gr\u00e0cies a la suor dels que s’esforcen per progressar, sota pretext de reconstruir Espanya, \u00e9s una brusca manera de donar l’estocada a la nostra economia. Certs intel\u00b7lectes topen amb els seus l\u00edmits.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 M\u00aa Gay de Li\u00e9bana Professor de la Facultat d’Economia i Empresa de la Universitat de Barcelona Acad\u00e8mic de n\u00famero de la Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors-Barcelona 1914 (RAED) Economia geom\u00e8trica O el que vindria a ser el mateix: geometria econ\u00f2mica. I tot per la V, que \u00e9s la vint-i-quatrena lletra i la dinovena consonant […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":90538,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[268,274],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-90598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coronavirus-des-del-coneixement","category-economia-i-politica","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"yoast_head":"\nEconomia i coronavirus (6) - Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/raed.academy\/ca\/economia-i-coronavirus-6\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economia i coronavirus (6) - Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jos\u00e9 M\u00aa Gay de Li\u00e9bana Professor de la Facultat d’Economia i Empresa de la Universitat de Barcelona Acad\u00e8mic de n\u00famero de la Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors-Barcelona 1914 (RAED) Economia geom\u00e8trica O el que vindria a ser el mateix: geometria econ\u00f2mica. 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