{"id":89449,"date":"2020-04-07T22:55:21","date_gmt":"2020-04-07T22:55:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/raed.academy\/?p=89449"},"modified":"2020-04-09T18:48:14","modified_gmt":"2020-04-09T18:48:14","slug":"economia-i-coronavirus-jose-maria-gay-de-liebana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/raed.academy\/ca\/economia-i-coronavirus-jose-maria-gay-de-liebana\/","title":{"rendered":"Economia i coronavirus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 M\u00aa Gay de Li\u00e9bana<\/strong><\/em><\/a>
\nProfessor de la Facultat d’Economia i Empresa de la Universitat de Barcelona<\/em>
\nAcad\u00e8mic de n\u00famero de la Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors-Barcelona 1914 (RAED)<\/em><\/p>\n

Condemnats per deficitaris<\/h3>\n

Que Europa no es fia de nosaltres est\u00e0 m\u00e9s clar que l’aigua. El primer ministre holand\u00e8s, Mark Rutte<\/strong>, al cas del pla “Sure”<\/strong> d’Ursula von der Leyen<\/strong>, aquest que ajuda a l’ocupaci\u00f3 a Espanya i It\u00e0lia, proposa fer un regal, sota el t\u00edtol de “Fons de Coronavirus”<\/strong>, a Espanya i It\u00e0lia, de 10.000 a 20.000 milions d’euros i prou, sense devoluci\u00f3, per\u00f2 de mutualitzar deute amb espanyols i italians, res.<\/p>\n

El dubte \u00e9s qu\u00e8 pot fer Europa per ajudar Espanya i It\u00e0lia que no sigui en forma de rescat. La dimensi\u00f3 del d\u00e8ficit p\u00fablic d’Espanya el 2019, 32.905.000 d’euros, uns 3.000 milions m\u00e9s que el 2018, \u00e9s de traca.<\/p>\n

Amb aquesta credencial, poc recorregut fiable tenim davant Brussel\u00b7les. Els nostres ajuntaments han complert, com cada any, amb el comprom\u00eds pressupostari, amb un super\u00e0vit de 3.839.000 d’euros. Les comunitats aut\u00f2nomes doblen el d\u00e8ficit de 2018 fins a 6.795 milions. L’Administraci\u00f3 central salda els seus comptes amb d\u00e8ficit en 13.896.000. I la Seguretat Social -clot de les nostres comptes- va perdre el 2019 ni m\u00e9s ni menys que 16.052.000 d’euros.<\/p>\n

Europa veu com des del 2008 fins avui, ininterrompudament, Espanya ha vomitat d\u00e8ficit p\u00fablic fins a totalitzar m\u00e9s de 820.933.000 d’euros, com el seu deute p\u00fablic a l’efecte del protocol de d\u00e8ficit excessiu ha crescut en m\u00e9s de 804.000 milions i com els passius en circulaci\u00f3 de les Administracions P\u00fabliques s’han disparat del 2008 fins avui ni m\u00e9s ni menys que 1.276.700 milions d’euros, m\u00e9s que el producte interior brut d’Espanya al 2019 que va ascendir a 1.245.331 milions. Amb aquesta carta de presentaci\u00f3, quina solv\u00e8ncia, fiabilitat i garanties ofereix Espanya a ulls d’Europa per mutualitzar deute? Els falcons del nord d’Europa, guardians del sacrosant super\u00e0vit pressupostari, veuen que deixar diners a Espanya seria deute perpetu i sense capacitat de devoluci\u00f3, \u00e9s a dir diners a fons perdut.<\/p>\n

Recessi\u00f3 o depressi\u00f3?<\/h3>\n

Sense respostes solvents per part de les nostres autoritats, l’economia espanyola es debat davant un dilema: recessi\u00f3, m\u00e9s o menys profunda, o depressi\u00f3, amb la qual cosa la cosa seria molt m\u00e9s seriosa. La recessi\u00f3 es concreta en la disminuci\u00f3 de l’activitat econ\u00f2mica, per tant, comercial i industrial i comporta un descens de salaris, d’ocupaci\u00f3 i de beneficis. El quid \u00e9s quant de temps durar\u00e0 la recessi\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica a Espanya, en la qual ja estem ficats. El primer trimestre del 2020 el donem per perdut i el segon trimestre, fins al juny, es planteja molt conf\u00fas, el que significaria perdre econ\u00f2micament el primer semestre d’aquest any 2020. La caiguda del turisme i de la nostra ind\u00fastria, per la hibernaci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica, ser\u00e0 un cop per a les nostres exportacions i un buit que altres pa\u00efsos ocuparan, deixant fora de joc a empreses espanyoles.<\/p>\n

Aix\u00f2 ens portaria a una recessi\u00f3 profunda que derivaria en una depressi\u00f3. I la depressi\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica \u00e9s el realment preocupant perqu\u00e8 equival a una crisi en tota regla, no transit\u00f2ria, amb unes seq\u00fceles que duren anys. \u00c9s el que t\u00e9 deixar a la nostra economia i les nostres empreses i aut\u00f2noms tirats a la nostra sort, sense l’empara del Govern, com passa. Entrar a depressi\u00f3 implica reduir la producci\u00f3 (xoc d’oferta), retreure el consum (xoc de demanda), destruir ocupaci\u00f3, ERO que no ERTO, enquistar i fins i tot disparar l’atur, restricci\u00f3 del cr\u00e8dit davant la p\u00e8rdua de solv\u00e8ncia generalitzada, avortar qualsevol indici d’inversi\u00f3, cascada de fallides i molta desigualtat. A tot aix\u00f2, sense mutualitzacions de deute ni injeccions de diners procedents d’Europa, em temo que Espanya s’encamina cap al rescat i intervenci\u00f3, i no de manera m\u00e9s o menys “light”. Pura sospita.<\/p>\n

Cop a l’economia de mercat?<\/h3>\n

\"\"32.905.000 d’euros de d\u00e8ficit el 2019. M\u00e9s ingressos per a l’Estat, 489.044.000 d’euros, i la despesa p\u00fablica disparada a 521.949.000. Del 2008 al 2019, Espanya acumula un d\u00e8ficit p\u00fablic de 820.933.000 d’euros, que s\u00f3n 820.933.000 de raons perqu\u00e8 els falcons de el nord d’Europa desconfi\u00efn d’Espanya. Per ventura, al cap i a la fi, el millor sigui una intervenci\u00f3 d’Espanya, previ rescat. Per\u00f2 compte, que hi ha alguna cosa a t\u00e9mer.<\/p>\n

A Espanya funciona l’economia de mercat, basada en els mercats que decideixen qu\u00e8, com i per a qui es produeix, i en ells connecten les decisions de consum i producci\u00f3, fixant els preus.<\/p>\n

En l’economia planificada, l’Estat marca el full de ruta econ\u00f2mic funcionant al so de dictats pol\u00edtics i \u00e9s un model centralitzat en qu\u00e8 l’Estat decideix quins b\u00e9ns i serveis es produeixen i als que van dirigits, assignant els recursos productius i fixant objectius de producci\u00f3 i creixement econ\u00f2mic.<\/p>\n

El tercer sistema \u00e9s l’economia mixta: el mercat assigna recursos, per\u00f2 l’Estat en regula el funcionament. Els passos que d\u00f3na el Govern sota pretext de l’estat d’alarma, amb decrets i compareixences, sonen a tr\u00e0nsit cap a una economia en pot\u00e8ncia de ser planificada a l’estil sovi\u00e8tic o, en el millor dels casos, cap a una economia mixta. Intervencionisme exacerbat, suspensi\u00f3 de la llibertat empresarial, sospites que tot ERTO fa olor de frau i falsedat amb les conseg\u00fcents amenaces, satanitzant a les nostres empreses i imposant unes c\u00e0rregues insuportables i impagables. Si hi afegim el confinament a qu\u00e8 estem sotmesos, tant exc\u00e9s intervencionista est\u00e0 bombardejant els pilars de l’economia espanyola i igual batia el cam\u00ed cap a una onada de nacionalitzacions… Pensa malament i encertar\u00e0s.<\/p>\n

Hibernaci\u00f3 i indignaci\u00f3<\/h3>\n

Volem a Copenhaguen, capital de Dinamarca, Uni\u00f3 Europea, tot i que fora de la zona euro, considerat el pa\u00eds menys corrupte del m\u00f3n, amb creixement econ\u00f2mic sostingut en els \u00faltims anys per sobre del 2% i gent feli\u00e7. PIB el 2019: 310.576.000 d’euros; PIB per c\u00e0pita: 53.370 euros; deute p\u00fablic nom\u00e9s del 34% sobre PIB, tancant el 2019 amb super\u00e0vit del 0,60%. Dinamarca actua assenyadament per ajudar els seus pimes davant el cop cr\u00edtic. All\u00e0 ni ERTO, ni burocr\u00e0cies, ni mobilitzaci\u00f3 de recursos sense posar diners com aqu\u00ed. Acord de el govern dan\u00e8s amb patronals i sindicats: l’Estat cobreix el 75% de el sou dels treballadors (fins 3.080 euros) amb els seus llocs en risc a canvi que no hi hagi acomiadaments. Els diners els lliura l’Estat directament a les empreses i aquestes pagaran \u00edntegrament els sous.<\/p>\n

La nostra economia, segons el Govern, entra en hibernaci\u00f3 mentre la indignaci\u00f3 empresarial i d’aut\u00f2noms es dispara: s\u00f3n empresaris i aut\u00f2noms, fins i tot treballadors, els que paguen i paguen aquesta crisi. El Govern es desent\u00e9n… La banca es converteix en l’\u00e0ngel de la guarda de l’economia espanyola i d’ella dep\u00e8n el nostre sosteniment. \u00c9s innegable que, a causa d’uns comptes p\u00fablics regirats, Espanya est\u00e0 en tr\u00e0nsit d’insolv\u00e8ncia. D’aqu\u00ed el SOS de Govern a Europa exigint mutualitzar deute p\u00fablic o bons coronavirus. No hi ha diners p\u00fablics per pagar el cost d’aquesta crisi. El rescat de l’economia espanyola, sense embuts, es mastega… Els desprop\u00f2sits ens porten, al costat d’It\u00e0lia, a dependre de Washington (Fons Monetari Internacional<\/strong>), Berl\u00edn (Angela Merkel<\/strong>), Frankfurt (Banc Central Europeu<\/strong>) i Brussel\u00b7les (Comissi\u00f3 Europea<\/strong>). Espanya est\u00e0 a la vora de l’abisme per culpa de la dolent\u00edssima gesti\u00f3 que s’ha fet i es fa dels diners p\u00fablics. Portem 10 anys clamant al desert!<\/p>\n

Va per elles! Va per ells!<\/h3>\n
\"Jos\u00e9

Dr. Jos\u00e9 Mar\u00eda Gay de Li\u00e9bana<\/p><\/div>\n

No \u00e9s el mateix caure i quedar-se grogui, que caure i aixecar-se. Aquest asserci\u00f3 cal portar-la al terreny econ\u00f2mic. En aquest malson cal posar tot l’esfor\u00e7 en sostenir, encara que sigui a baixa intensitat, a causa de les vicissituds, el pols econ\u00f2mic i que els cors empresarials segueixin bategant al menys t\u00edmidament.<\/p>\n

Parlo cada dia amb empresaris extenuats, amb aut\u00f2noms abatuts, amb professionals angoixats, que porten m\u00e9s de dues setmanes sense ingressar res, sense fer caixa, sense cobrar i, en canvi, havent d’afrontar pagaments compromesos, suportant despeses, emulant aut\u00e8ntics funambulistes financers simplement per sobreviure-hi.<\/p>\n

\u00c9s l’hora de ser al costat de tots aquests herois que, contra i vent i marea, defensen estoicament les seves posicions empresarials i de posar en valor a totes les empreses i la gent que en aquest tr\u00e0ngol treballa perqu\u00e8 tots nosaltres resistim. Per aix\u00f2, el nostre Govern ha de reflexionar i entendre que tots aquests porcells empresarials, aut\u00f2noms i professionals, s\u00f3n protagonistes d’una pel\u00b7l\u00edcula b\u00e8l\u00b7lica. Cal donar suport al teixit empresarial, donant-li tota mena de facilitats perqu\u00e8 els nostres aut\u00f2noms, petites, mitjanes i grans empreses, segueixin bategant, sobrevisquin, s’asseuen amb forces per navegar per aquestes aig\u00fces procel\u00b7loses. No estrenyem les clavilles als nostres aut\u00f2noms i empreses, no els neguem salvavides com posposar les seves obligacions fiscals, els pagaments a Hisenda<\/strong> i Seguretat Social<\/strong>. Les empreses que morin en aquesta travessia seran destrucci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica. En canvi, les que aguantin s\u00f3n el nostre salconduit per a la reconstrucci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica, per al dia despr\u00e9s, per encarar el nou paradigma. No \u00e9s el mateix caure i quedar-se grogui, que caure i aixecar-se. Va per elles, les nostres empreses! Va per ells, els nostres treballadors!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 M\u00aa Gay de Li\u00e9bana Professor de la Facultat d’Economia i Empresa de la Universitat de Barcelona Acad\u00e8mic de n\u00famero de la Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors-Barcelona 1914 (RAED) Condemnats per deficitaris Que Europa no es fia de nosaltres est\u00e0 m\u00e9s clar que l’aigua. El primer ministre holand\u00e8s, Mark Rutte, al cas del pla “Sure” […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":89414,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[268,274],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-89449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coronavirus-des-del-coneixement","category-economia-i-politica","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"yoast_head":"\nEconomia i coronavirus - Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jos\u00e9 Maria Gay de Li\u00e9bana: Espanya a la vora de l'abisme per la gesti\u00f3 de govern: gesti\u00f3 de diners p\u00fablics, aband\u00f3 a la seva sort d'aut\u00f2noms i empreses ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/raed.academy\/ca\/economia-i-coronavirus-jose-maria-gay-de-liebana\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economia i coronavirus - 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