{"id":182036,"date":"2026-03-24T11:55:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T11:55:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/raed.academy\/?p=182036"},"modified":"2026-03-24T11:55:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T11:55:14","slug":"lespanya-dels-50-milions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/raed.academy\/ca\/lespanya-dels-50-milions\/","title":{"rendered":"L’Espanya dels 50 milions"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Dr.

Sr. Josep S\u00e1nchez Llibre<\/p><\/div>\n

Josep S\u00e1nchez Llibre<\/strong><\/em><\/a>, president de\u00a0Foment\u00a0del\u00a0Treball\u00a0Nacional<\/strong>, vicepresident de la Confederaci\u00f3 Espanyola d’Organitzacions Empresarials<\/strong>, exdiputat al Parlament de Catalunya<\/strong> i al Congr\u00e9s dels Diputats<\/strong>, exsenador i acad\u00e8mic d’honor de la Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors<\/strong> (RAED), comparteix amb la comunitat acad\u00e8mica les conclusions de l’informe “La Espa\u00f1a de los 50 millones de habitantes”<\/strong>, elaborat per la firma Opina 360<\/strong> per a la Societat Barcelonina d’Estudis Econ\u00f2mics i Socials<\/strong> de Foment. El document analitza els canvis demogr\u00e0fics que determinaran l’economia espanyola al llarg de les pr\u00f2ximes d\u00e8cades. L’estudi es va tancar el desembre del 2025, tenint en compte un escenari en el qual el pa\u00eds s’acosta als 50 milions d’habitants, amb un creixement demogr\u00e0fic que revela un envelliment accelerat, una forta depend\u00e8ncia de la immigraci\u00f3 i una polaritzaci\u00f3 territorial que amena\u00e7a la sostenibilitat econ\u00f2mica futura.<\/p>\n

L’informe destaca que entre el 2000 i el 2025, Espanya ha guanyat m\u00e9s de 8,6 milions d’habitants, un augment del 20,1% que el situa com el cinqu\u00e8 pa\u00eds amb m\u00e9s creixement demogr\u00e0fic de la Uni\u00f3 Europea, nom\u00e9s per darrere de petits estats com Luxemburg, Malta, Xipre i Irlanda. Tot i aix\u00f2, aquest aven\u00e7 no respon a un boom de naixements, sin\u00f3 gaireb\u00e9 exclusivament als fluxos migratoris. De fet, des del 2015, el saldo vegetatiu \u00e9s negatiu: moren m\u00e9s persones de les que neixen. El 2024 es va registrar un m\u00ednim hist\u00f2ric de tot just 317.255 naixements, la xifra m\u00e9s baixa en gaireb\u00e9 dos segles, i la taxa de fertilitat se situa en 1,12 fills per dona, la segona m\u00e9s baixa d’Europa. Alhora, l’esperan\u00e7a de vida ha pujat fins als 84 anys, consolidant Espanya com el tercer pa\u00eds m\u00e9s longeu de la UE. El resultat \u00e9s una pir\u00e0mide demogr\u00e0fica completament desfigurada: avui hi ha m\u00e9s residents de 70-74 anys que de 0-4 anys, i els majors de 80 anys han duplicat el seu pes relatiu, passant del 3,6% al 6,2% del total.<\/p>\n

La immigraci\u00f3, en aquest per\u00edode, ha actuat com a veritable motor d’aquest creixement. Gaireb\u00e9 un de cada cinc residents (19,1%) ha nascut fora d’Espanya, i tres de cada quatre persones arribades de l’exterior als \u00faltims anys tenen menys de 40 anys, la qual cosa ha perm\u00e8s rejovenir parcialment la base de la pir\u00e0mide. Sense aquests fluxos, el pa\u00eds hauria perdut poblaci\u00f3 de forma sostinguda. El creixement, aix\u00ed i tot, no ha estat homogeni. Les prov\u00edncies de Madrid, Barcelona, Alacant, Val\u00e8ncia i M\u00e0laga concentren el 89,1% de l’augment total d’habitants, mentre que tretze prov\u00edncies de l’interior i nord-oest han perdut residents de manera continuada. S’ha configurat aix\u00ed una Espanya polaritzada: \u00e0rees metropolitanes i costaneres en expansi\u00f3 davant un interior que es buida lentament.<\/p>\n

Els moviments interiors agreugen aquest desequilibri. Les grans ciutats perden poblaci\u00f3 cap a les seves perif\u00e8ries m\u00e9s assequibles (Toledo, Guadalajara, Tarragona o Girona guanyen el que Madrid i Barcelona perden), i els petits municipis rurals han vist una lleugera recuperaci\u00f3 temporal durant la pand\u00e8mia gr\u00e0cies al teletreball, tot i que la tend\u00e8ncia de fons continua sent la despoblaci\u00f3. L’estructura per edat tamb\u00e9 varia molt per territoris. L’informe subratlla que la demografia i l’economia estan \u00edntimament lligades. El creixement poblacional dels \u00faltims anys ha anat acompanyat de per\u00edodes d’expansi\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica, i les comunitats m\u00e9s din\u00e0miques (Madrid, Balears) s\u00f3n tamb\u00e9 les que m\u00e9s habitants han guanyat. Aquest proc\u00e9s accentua la bretxa entre una Espanya saturada i una Espanya buida, on la despoblaci\u00f3 compromet la viabilitat social i econ\u00f2mica de molts territoris rurals.<\/p>\n

\"\"L’estudi conclou que la immigraci\u00f3 ha aportat gaireb\u00e9 el 45% de l’ocupaci\u00f3 creada entre el 2021 i el 2025 i ha contribu\u00eft de forma directa a l’aven\u00e7 del PIB per c\u00e0pita. Per\u00f2 tamb\u00e9 genera desafiaments: molts immigrants es concentren en llocs de treball de menor qualificaci\u00f3 i productivitat, i l’envelliment eleva la despesa en pensions i sanitat, pressionant la sostenibilitat de l’estat del benestar. La pir\u00e0mide desfigurada, la concentraci\u00f3 urbana, la depend\u00e8ncia migrat\u00f2ria i la relaci\u00f3 directa entre demografia i activitat econ\u00f2mica dibuixen un pa\u00eds que creix en n\u00fameros totals, per\u00f2 que haur\u00e0 d’afrontar amb urg\u00e8ncia el relleu generacional, la sostenibilitat de les pensions i la cohesi\u00f3 territorial si vol mantenir la seva competitivitat empresarial i el seu model social al llarg de les pr\u00f2ximes d\u00e8cades.<\/p>\n

S\u00e1nchez Llibre ha estat reconegut amb el Premi de l’Associaci\u00f3 de Treballadors Aut\u00f2noms de Catalunya<\/strong>, la Medalla Bernardo O’Higgins<\/strong>, atorgada pel Govern de Xile<\/strong>, \u00e9s col\u00b7legiat d’honor de l’Il\u00b7lustre Col\u00b7legi Oficial de Titulats Mercantils i Empresarials de Barcelona<\/strong>, Medalla d’Honor<\/strong> de Foment del Treball a la Traject\u00f2ria Empresarial, Ins\u00edgnia d’Or i Brillants<\/strong> de l’RCD Espanyol<\/strong>, Medalla d’Or<\/strong> de l’Ordre de les Cambres de Comer\u00e7 del Consell de Cambres de Comer\u00e7<\/strong>, Medalla de la Creu Roja<\/strong> pel seu comprom\u00eds personal i implicaci\u00f3 amb la instituci\u00f3 i el seu programa d’emerg\u00e8ncia humanit\u00e0ria “Creu Roja Respon”<\/strong>, Medalla d’Honor<\/strong> d’Automobile Barcelona<\/strong>, \u00e9s membre d’honor del Registre d’Economistes Auditors<\/strong> del Consell General d’Economistes<\/strong>, Premi Gaud\u00ed Gresol<\/strong> a la Notorietat i l’Excel\u00b7l\u00e8ncia en la categoria de Lideratge Empresarial i \u00e9s autor del llibre “Les veritats de l’Estatut”<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Josep S\u00e1nchez Llibre comparteix les conclusions de l’informe “La Espa\u00f1a de los 50 millones de habitantes”, elaborat per la firma Opina 360. El document analitza els canvis demogr\u00e0fics que determinaran l’economia espanyola les properes d\u00e8cades<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":101502,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[350,304,242,404,481],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-182036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ciencies-politiques","category-economia-i-politica-ca","category-categ-historia","category-historia-nacional-ca","category-sociologia-ca","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"yoast_head":"\nL'Espanya dels 50 milions - Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El document analitza els canvis demogr\u00e0fics que determinaran l'economia espanyola les properes d\u00e8cades\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/raed.academy\/ca\/lespanya-dels-50-milions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L'Espanya dels 50 milions - 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