{"id":123115,"date":"2022-10-07T10:01:49","date_gmt":"2022-10-07T10:01:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/raed.academy\/?p=123115"},"modified":"2022-10-07T13:11:22","modified_gmt":"2022-10-07T13:11:22","slug":"el-risc-de-la-desacceleracio-economica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/raed.academy\/ca\/el-risc-de-la-desacceleracio-economica\/","title":{"rendered":"El risc de la desacceleraci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Dra.

Dra. Montserrat Casanovas<\/p><\/div>\n

Montserrat Casanovas<\/strong><\/em><\/a>, catedr\u00e0tica d’Economia Financera i Comptabilitat de la Universitat de Barcelona<\/strong>, \u200b\u200bpresidenta de l’Associaci\u00f3 Catalana de Comptabilitat i Direcci\u00f3<\/strong> (ACCID) i acad\u00e8mica de n\u00famero i membre de la Junta de Govern<\/strong> de la Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors-Barcelona 1914<\/strong>, va presentar el passat 29 de setembre el darrer informe de l’Observatori Financer<\/strong> del Consell General d’Economistes<\/strong>, que ella mateixa coordina, referent al primer semestre de l’any. L’estudi mant\u00e9 al 3,9% les previsions per al creixement del Producte Interior Brut (PIB) espanyol aquest any i rebaixa a l’1,5% les estimacions de cara a l’any que ve, molt lluny de les m\u00e9s optimistes del Govern. Fins i tot preveient que el creixement del tercer trimestre sigui positiu, a conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncia del bon comportament de la temporada tur\u00edstica, l’informe apunta una desacceleraci\u00f3 de l’activitat econ\u00f2mica tant a Espanya com a l’Eurozona.<\/p>\n

L’Observatori revisa a l’al\u00e7a l’estimaci\u00f3 del deute p\u00fablic sobre el PIB a final del 2022, derivat per l’increment registrat en els \u00faltims mesos (0,8% al juliol en taxa mensual i m\u00e9s del 4% des de comen\u00e7ament d’any) i la previsi\u00f3 d’una desacceleraci\u00f3 del PIB a l’\u00faltim trimestre. A aix\u00f2 s’uneix l’augment de la c\u00e0rrega financera del deute p\u00fablic per l’increment dels tipus d’inter\u00e8s. El BCE, de fet, va augmentar al setembre els tipus d’inter\u00e8s en 0,75 punts fins que el va deixar en 1,25% i s’esperen noves pujades de tipus a curt i mitj\u00e0 termini per intentar moderar la taxa d’inflaci\u00f3 de l’Eurozona.<\/p>\n

“La pol\u00edtica agressiva dels bancs centrals, amb importants pujades dels tipus d’inter\u00e8s per fer front a una inflaci\u00f3 desbocada, ha provocat fortes caigudes a la immensa majoria de les borses. A Espanya, el problema de la inflaci\u00f3 es veu agreujat per la forta depreciaci\u00f3 de l’euro, que encareix les importacions de mat\u00e8ries primeres pagades en d\u00f2lars”, va assenyalar l’acad\u00e8mica sobre aquesta q\u00fcesti\u00f3 en una presentaci\u00f3 en qu\u00e8 tamb\u00e9 van participar el president del Consell General d’Economistes, Valent\u00edn Pich<\/strong>; el director del Servei d’Estudis<\/strong> del Consell, Salvador Mar\u00edn<\/strong>, i el tamb\u00e9 coordinador de l’Observatori Salustiano Velo<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Davant d’una taxa de variaci\u00f3 interanual de l’IPC avan\u00e7at del mes de setembre situada al 9% (1,5 punts menys que a l’agost), Pich<\/strong> va advertir del risc a una recessi\u00f3 i va demanar prud\u00e8ncia tant al Govern<\/strong> com als reguladors. “Malgrat la baixada d’uns 1,5 punts de l’IPC avan\u00e7at del setembre, segons dades publicades per l’Institut Nacional d’Estad\u00edstica<\/strong>, que poden donar s\u00edmptomes de moderaci\u00f3 de la inflaci\u00f3, tan esperada, altres indicadors nacionals i europeus segueixen la seva tend\u00e8ncia decreixent, per la qual cosa es preveu una desacceleraci\u00f3 de la nostra economia, aix\u00ed com d’altres principals economies mundials, per la qual cosa les administracions p\u00fabliques hauran d’actuar amb molta prud\u00e8ncia per controlar el d\u00e8ficit i el deute p\u00fablic, sobretot en entorns de tipus d’inter\u00e8s creixents com ens trobem”.<\/p>\n

\"\"“La pol\u00edtica econ\u00f2mica dels bancs centrals amb pujades abruptes de tipus d’inter\u00e8s \u00e9s m\u00e9s efectiva quan la inflaci\u00f3 \u00e9s de demanda i menys quan \u00e9s d’oferta, com passa a Europa i Espanya. Aquestes mesures tenen menys efecte sobre la inflaci\u00f3 que als Estats Units, at\u00e8s el pes que hi tenen l’energia i els aliments no elaborats, aqu\u00ed al voltant del 60% quan all\u00e0 no arriba al 30%. Precisament als Estats Units, la part m\u00e9s important de la inflaci\u00f3 ve per la pressi\u00f3 dels salaris, en un mercat laboral amb plena ocupaci\u00f3 -va explicar Velo-. Els alts tipus d’inter\u00e8s, la inflaci\u00f3 desbocada i la c\u00e0rrega afegida que suposa la imposici\u00f3 indirecta sobre productes els preus dels quals han augmentat exageradament estan fent que el consum se n’estigui ressentint, sobretot quan fins ara s’observa una contenci\u00f3 salarial, amb una p\u00e8rdua de poder adquisitiu propera als 7 punts. A hores d’ara \u00e9s indispensable un pacte de rendes”.<\/p>\n

Casasnovas<\/strong> \u00e9s tamb\u00e9 presidenta de la Comissi\u00f3 d’Economistes Docents i Investigadors<\/strong> i del F\u00f2rum d’Economistes a Mercats Financers<\/strong> del Col\u00b7legi d’Economistes de Catalunya<\/strong> i vicepresidenta de la Comissi\u00f3 Financera<\/strong> del Registre d’Economistes Assessors Financers<\/strong> del mateix Consell General d’Economistes d’Espanya.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Montserrat Casanovas presenta el darrer informe de l’Observatori Financer del Consell General d’Economistes, que apunta a una desacceleraci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica a Espanya i a l’Eurozona<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":123028,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[350,304],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-123115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ciencies-politiques","category-economia-i-politica-ca","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"yoast_head":"\nEl risc de la desacceleraci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica - Reial Acad\u00e8mia Europea de Doctors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Montserrat Casanovas presenta el darrer informe de l'Observatori Financer del Consell General d'Economistes, que apunta a una desacceleraci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/raed.academy\/ca\/el-risc-de-la-desacceleracio-economica\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El risc de la desacceleraci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica - 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